NRL Analysis: What Makes A Run-First Middle So Dangerous, Eels Rising & Ezra Mam's Return

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We’re into Round 11 of the NRL season already, so the trends in the game are starting to develop and become clearer.

I received a question on Reddit that I wanted to provide a longer answer to. It follows on from the breakdown of the Bulldogs comeback earlier in the week:

“I noticed something of note. Kurt Mann is generally one of our better players but he only played 24 minutes, subbed off for Hayward and stayed off. Raiders don't score until the 37th minute (Granted, a captain's challenge denied a try). 2nd half then starts and we click and stay dominant.

Mann is still a great 13, and Hayward has a different skillset. Do you think it was simply Ciraldo saw Mann's playstyle wasn't working in attack so made a tactical change? Imo Hayward effectively lets us have three halves on the pitch. Are we going to see this more in the 13 role across the comp? Or is it just a tactical fad tinkering with a spine position?”

Against the Raiders, I think it might have been tactical.

Teams will play a bit more freely when chasing points. The game plan changes, and looking to punch through the middle where the Bulldogs do a lot of their best work at speed was unlikely to produce points at a quick enough rate to reel in the Raiders.

Mann is more of a run threat than Hayward. He’s excellent at shrinking the defence before moving the ball wider, but that works better against a sliding defence. Hayward, however, is a five-eighth playing in the middle. He can move the ball quickly and accurately against a jamming defence to take away their time.

When chasing points, having that third half on the field makes sense. It’s a risk worth taking, and the Bulldogs are better positioned to take it than most.

As far as it becoming an NRL-wide trend, I don’t think it will be all that common.

The reason we don’t see it in every team in every game is the defensive frailties it creates. The idea of a third half is great from an attacking perspective, but it’s another smaller body in the defensive line. Put him next to a hooker and perhaps a below-average defender in the middle and you’re in trouble.

I covered missed tackles a couple of weeks ago:

Defenders in the middle don’t miss many tackles. They have the benefit of support on either side of them and often defend straight carries or seek dual contact. However, smaller bodies concede a lot more metres post-contact. They struggle to get above the ball to win contact and the wrestle.

One poor tackle, even if it is made in a counting stat sense, can be the difference between defending a complete set or conceding points.

The best big-minute lock forwards in the NRL are run-threats first: Isaah Yeo, Cameron Murray, Pat Carrigan¹ , Victor Radley, and Erin Clark² .

I had this Panthers scrum sequence in the bank to capture what a run-threat can do to a line, particularly when that line is manipulated in the way Penrith does here.

They’ve put the scrum on left tram line and asked the Cowboys to defend with six on the long side. It looks like Nathan Cleary is trying to drop Liam Martin back under but the Cowboys line speed beats them to it. Nonetheless, Martin is able to fight his way to the target, John Bateman.

Bateman has peeled out of the scrum and tied in through the middle, but by bringing him into the tackle, the Cowboys' line isn’t quite intact. Bateman has been caught at marker and Sam McIntyre forced to edge.

At the same time, Scott Drinkwater has eyes for Nathan Cleary on his left edge as the Panthers stack the other side on his right.

With Yeo able to get outside McIntyre, who isn’t quite as quick as Bateman, the lock forward turns Jake Clifford in. Clifford can’t give up his inside shoulder to a ball-carrier so strong. Jack Cole’s line out the back takes the attention of the centre to create the space Luke Garner strolls through.

While a smaller player like Hayward would have the speed to burn his man, he wouldn’t demand the attention of the rest of the line like Yeo and company. We’d more likely see that four-man go at the smaller ball-player and back his size and strength to win the contact one-on-one.

Bigger bodies running first puts the defence in two minds, which opens up their ball-playing ability. Unlike the smaller ‘third-half’ forwards, they aren’t a liability in defence either.

I think we will see the Bulldogs' approach grow in popularity, but not see many wear #13. The utility off the bench who can play in the middle if required is a valuable option for injury cover and, as we saw last week, mid-game tactical adjustments.

Round 11 Watchlist

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