You’d think that a team starting with Matthew Dufty, Alex Johnston, Latrell Mitchell, Jack Wighton, Campbell Graham and Cody Walker would be looking to win this by piling up points on the edges. That is the plan, overall, but it starts in the middle where they have a relatively rare advantage.

Tevita Tatola, Keaon Koloamatangi and Cameron Murray can get the Bunnies up the field. Only two teams have averaged more one-pass runs than South Sydney’s 86.5 per game. They’re a one-out team in yardage and nothing should change there. If he’s not carting the ball up himself, Murray is an excellent link man to David Fifita to generate momentum out wide where they can make further tracks up the field.

We’re going to know early on in the game where it stands physically. Should the Rabbitohs match the Knights from the start, they will generate enough looks at the line to find points.

We know where the Bunnies are going inside 10; no team has scored more tries at a higher proportion than Souths down the left edge.

Per Stats Insider, 65 of their 129 tries have come from the left side of the field. Murray is so often the catalyst with his carry and quick play-the-ball to the middle of the field. If the defence is too tight around the ruck and Walker has a free passage to the four-man, the ball ends up in Johnston’s hands in the corner more often than not.

While the Knights are without key players through the middle, their right edge remains relatively in tact. Overall, Newcastle’s right edge defence has been one of the best all season accounting for only 30% of their total tries conceded.

The Newcastle right edge will have their work cut out for them. Mitchell’s hands are still, somehow, underrated in the centres. He’s prepared to take a shot given his size and strength, and has the fast hands to send the ball on. If Dane Gagai and company switch off for a second, Walker and Mitchell will make them pay.

The Knights middle is depleted. There is no hiding from that this week, and Justin Holbrook will likely use it to his advantage. Give a coach a reason to lite a fire in his team, and he will bring out a blowtorch.

If Holbrook can get his team up for the game physicaly, their long-range attack can play a part in this one. They’ve made a habit out of scoring from inside their own half this season.

Newcastle will lack go-forward in a traditional sense. Greg Marzew can only take so many tough carries out of yardage himself. But the Knights are looking for the momentum play, and with Jermaine McEwen and Francis Manuleleua on the edges, they have two ball-carriers that can scramble a line.

Or, as Manuleleua can do, simply run straight through it.

The Knights provided what I think will be the blueprint off a tap start against the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles.

They’ll play to both sides of the field, and seem happy to land near the sideline if it means they’re firing a shot. Kalyn Ponga looks to beat his man on the outside on the first shift here, but with that closed down, the Knights are back to a point around the scrum line.

It’s not a particularly strong carry, but that highlights how quickly the Knights snap into action. Having moved the Sea Eagles across the field, they’ve made the middle travel and disorganised the edge.

You can see the third man late back to the shortside. The two middles are also late to flip after holding the shortside for the third man, and Tom Trbojevic is reluctantly filling in with Ponga hanging out the back of the ruck.

With that disjointed line, the Knights have their look. We can ignore the late man getting up at A and call it five defenders from the scrum line. That’s easy pickings for any team, let alone one with the speed of Fletcher Sharpe and the threat of Ponga.

It’s Sharpe this time, using his big backrower as a lead to create the two-on-one opportunity on the edge.

Newcastle’s movement can be a high-risk approach. Even more high-risk when an error gives one of the best good ball attacking units in the NRL a free crack at the line. Still, given the state of their middle and the relative weakness of South Sydney’s defence on the edges, it’s their best path to victory.

It can put some work into Mitchell defensively, too. The Bulldogs found some success getting him into repeat efforts earlier in the season, and he’s only 105 minutes into his return from injury heading into this one.

Much like the 42-38 and 26-24 thrillers we’ve already seen between these two this season, I’m expecting another close one despite the general consensus around a Rabbitohs win.