NRL Round 18 Review: State Of Origin Edges, NRLW, Kaeo Weekes & Trbojevic Roaming

Sponsored by

What's To Come This Week:

• State Of Origin: Winning It On The Edges

  • The Mitchell Miss-Match

  • Queensland’s Speed To Succeed

• Quick Play-the-Balls

  • NRLW GIF

  • Weekes In Return

  • Stray State Of Origin Links

• Setting Up For A Shot: Trbojevic Roaming

• Try Time: Broncos Hit Bulldogs Back-To-Back

State Of Origin: Winning It On The Edges

Tackle one can make or break a set of six. First up here, we’re breaking down what makes for the biggest talking point of the week.

No team is successful when they can’t at least hold their gloves up in the middle of the field. You don’t always need to dominate, but the halves need a platform to create from.

State of Origin is consistently the best example of how the middle of the field decides a game.

How often in recent years have we seen the New South Wales Blues name a stacked back five only for an impressive Queensland Maroons middle to take them out of the game?

Game 3 of the 2025 series will be much the same. Again, the Blues boast points on the edges, but in Josh Papalii, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Pat Carrigan, Reuben Cotter, Kurt Capewell and Jeremiah Nanai, the Maroons have the quality in the centre-third to hang in the game for their own stars to win it late.

With a platform, each team will have their opportunities out wide, and each has one or two holes that can be exploited if executed well.

The Mitchell Miss-Match

How New South Wales will look to play in good ball is no secret. They’ve made State of Origin rookie Robert Toia a target across the first two games. There is little doubt Gehmat Shibasaki will be asked to answer his fair share of questions, too.

But these two tries down the left edge are the blueprint for the Blues, and they’re unlikely to change things up too much in this one.

The two tries start from different spots across the field, but the approach picture at the end remains the same. They want to get Jarome Luai working across the field to engage the three-man to force difficult decisions out of the centre and winger.

In the first, from the middle of the field, Luai is able to engage the three-man himself after Nathan Cleary ties up the space around the ruck. With flat shape out the back, Mitchell uses his speed to skip outside his opposite number and bring the winger into the tackle.

We see a slight variation on the second example despite the finish looking the same.

Cleary again does his work through the middle, but with bigger spaces covering more of the field, Luai uses a lead to engage the three-man this time. He holds up the ball nicely to keep the defence from sliding, and, once again, the winger feels vulnerable with Mitchell running downhill. Few centres in the game have the hands and footwork to complete these passes so consistently to their winger.

While the faces are a little different on the right edge, the shapes will look similar. Shibisaki is tasked with stopping Crichton, and that is something the Blues can utilise to their advantage. With the lead inside two and Dylan Edwards sweeping, New South Wales can create a lot of the same looks using their centres as the focal point of the attack.

Queensland’s Speed To Succeed

Where the Blues have tackle-breakers and metre-eaters on the edges, the Maroons rely on speed. They require momentum up the field, a compressed middle and space out wide to make the most of it.

It’s why the battle in the middle is so crucial for Billy Slater, and why they can look remarkably unthreatening with the ball without any dominance. Keep an eye in Game 3 for the difference in how the two teams carry the ball in good ball.

The Blues have generated 235 more metres post-contact across the first two games of the series. When it comes to speed, a much-improved Maroons played with a 3.63-second play-the-ball speed in Game 2 compared with 3.82 seconds in Game 1.

Where New South Wales is looking to push through tackles and get up the field, Queensland stands in the tackle or drops short, looks to find their elbows and knees, and searches for a quick ruck.

Queensland’s dominant first half in Game 2 came on the back of speed. Whether it was through the middle for Harry Grant to jump out of dummy half following a standing tackle and behind a late third man…

…or for Tom Dearden looking to create triangles in the Blues line with his speed and direct style…

…speed kills for Queensland against the power and strength of the New South Wales back five.

Game 3 feels like classic State of Origin.

The Blues are stacked and have the better team on paper. It’s their series to lose at home in the decider. But this is precisely where the Maroons are at their best: genuine underdogs, backs against the wall, entering hostile territory.

There is a world where New South Wales gets off to a flier and the game plays out like AI models and sports betting predictions suggest it will, but for this neutral, I’m hoping for chaos in a close one.

RECAP: Breaking Down Queensland's Change In Attack In Game 2

Quick Play-the-Balls

We’re generating momentum through the middle of the article with a couple of quick carries.

NRLW GIF

Bobbi Law meets Isabella Waterman with a shot that will only grow the women’s game.

Weekes In Return

It’s a funny game, rugby league.

When Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad found himself on the wrong side of Ricky Stuart in 2022, Xavier Savage was installed as the starting fullback - the future. Seb Kris spent the majority of the 2023 NRL season in the Raiders #1 jersey while Savage slogged it out in reserve grade.

It wasn’t until Round 18 in 2024 that Kaeo Weekes took over from a 35-year-old Jordan Rapana at the back. Even then, and into this season, Weekes hadn’t nailed down the spot in the eyes of many, given his struggles under the high ball.

Now he’s become one of the most dangerous kick-returners in the NRL.

Don’t present a line, and he will make you pay. It’s also another good opportunity to mention the importance of a good kick chase and how triangles in the line can be costly.

Stray State Of Origin Links

It’s a good time of year for rugby league media:

July 8, 1980: The birth of Origin changes footy forever

'Last ride': Blues bracing for Papalii factor in Origin decider

After seven clubs and two codes, Queensland Origin debutant Gehamat Shibasaki is right where he's meant to be¹

Nathan Cleary has passed Johns and Pearce; a victory for NSW will cement his State of Origin legacy

NSW Blues v QLD Maroons Match Highlights | Game III, 2019

Setting Up For A Shot: Trbojevic Roaming

Teams play to points with the following tackle in mind. Here, I’m touching on something to watch next week as we try to keep ahead of things happening on the field.

It seems as though Tom Trbojevic’s future is in the centres for the time being. He’s finally managing to string a few games together and is looking fitter every week.

The more he plays out there, the more actions the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles will be able to scheme up for him to impact the game. However, it’s not as simple as him “floating” across the field.

It wasn’t quite so common two or three seasons ago. Zac Lomax, in particular, looked dangerous at times when leaving his spot at centre. But when you’re an indicator for the defence like Trbojevic, they’re looking for you.

You can see the Sea Eagles play to his right edge here, but as the defence shuts it down, Trbojevic gets on his bike. The space on these movements looks like it might be back through the middle, but the Sea Eagles don’t have the shape around the ruck to ask a difficult question.

That makes it easy for the defence to get their numbers sorted on the following play…

Subscribe to Premium to read the rest.