It all comes down to this…

A Rugby League World Cup like no other, ends with the same final as many others, and with the winner of nine of the last 10 expected to win again.

Still, this tournament has felt like a change for international rugby league. Many have been championing international footy for years - pleading with the decision makers to give it the time and respect it deserves. It’s not shock to those people that with planning and more of a focus, a period of the calendar that has often been described as footy fatigue has resulted in sold out crowds and record television numbers.

It hasn’t been without its faults. There is still room for the game to improve in creating parity and excitement outside of the blockbuster fixtures. Nonetheless, we look set to finish the rugby league season with what could be the best game of the year across the sport as the always-fancied Kangaroos take on a brilliant Kiwis side.

When looking into the difference in how the two teams play with the ball, the answer in defence is the same for both.

The Kiwis will take a lot out of the Rugby League World Cup opener.

Few would argue against them being the better side for longer, but nobody can argue with the Kangaroos finishing on top. Kevin Walters’ side did enough to limit a rampaging Kiwis outfit to stay within touching distance on the scoreboard. As they so often do, the green and gold came up with big plays when it mattered most to win.

The Kangaroos are stacked, but it feels as though containing Reece Walsh is the first step to winning this match for the Kiwis. Australia has enough talent across the field to make up for a quiet Walsh game, but if the fullback is allowed to do as he pleases with the ball, the task looks too tall for the Kiwis.

He scored three against Samoa last week but featured in many more.

The recipe for the Kangaroos attack is relatively simple and consistent: Get the half onto the four-man with a lead inside three-man with Walsh sweeping out the back.

It’s a shape than can put Walsh and his speed onto the outside of the three-man to create a three-v-two on the edge where he can run or pass into the space.

Australia has plenty of options with Walsh in this spot whether he touches the ball or not.

If the defence reacts and looks to jam, which Samoa tried to do when they saw that lead inside three, Walsh is the perfect decoy. The centre and winger must work in concert, and if one is a step behind the other, the Kangaroos have too much skill out wide to miss the opportunity.

But I’m anticipating a lot more resistance from the Kiwis defence through the middle on Sunday. Too often the Samoa defence struggled to cover the field and it started at the ruck. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow’s job is difficult with so many threats in front of them and he found too many numbers around the ruck at times, and over-stacked one side at others.

Kalyn Ponga doesn’t get the credit he deserves as a pure defensive fullback. He will make the covering tackle, or at least be in position to do so, but it’s in his numbers and line organisation that he can make his biggest defensive impact in the final.

Stacking the defence with a focus on containing Walsh can’t come at the cost of missing others, though. Samoa made that mistake early on last week for Tom Dearden to score via a simple show-and-go.

As Luke Keary said in commentary, “the most dangerous man on the field is the man with the ball.” With an eye on Walsh out the back, the Samoan defence cheated on defending Dearden who is far too good to offer that sort of coverage.

Rugby league is a simple game. It’s the simple things done well that will decide the final. If the Kiwis go a good job on the ball, in the wrestle and in setting their line, they will go a long way to keeping a lid on Walsh in attack and getting over the favourites.

There isn’t any way to stop this Kiwis pack. Not entirely. They’re too deep with too many high-quality minutes in the rotation for any opposition dominate the middle for 80.

A period of go-forward is inevitable, and it’s how Australia defends it that will determine their success.

This Kiwis team is always ready to pounce on a play. They have the players to fill in positions across the park and fall into shape especially quickly. Kalyn Ponga’s try in the opener is a prime example of how one lapse in concentration from the defence can turn into points.

The lapse comes in the attempted tackle of Xavier Willison. With the defenders loose, the big middle forward is able to stand in the tackle and release an offload. To the ‘fill positions’ point, Erin Clark has the skill to step in as a half here. In a spot a lot of middles would tuck the ball and run, he sees the opportunity out wide and fires a pass to Jahrome Hughes.

Hughes doesn’t force anything. The Kiwis are in the position they want to be; playing fast and stressing the defensive line. It won’t go down as a try assist, but I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that we need to start putting some respect on play-the-ball’s leading to points.

By poking his nose through the line, Isaah Yeo and Jacob Preston can’t get a hold of Hughes. Yeo is barely up at marker and Preston doesn’t make it at all. Walsh hasn’t been able to install himself in the line either.

With the line scrambled and playing at pace, the Kiwis left edge falls into shape, shrinks the middle, and creates the space on the edge.

Clark, Ponga and Jeremy Marshall-King know what’s coming. Nafahu Whyte is quickly told if he didn't know already. The key players created one opportunity and spotted the next in a matter of seconds, but it all came from a carry from one of the Kiwis middle forwards.

The avenue’s for points look a lot different for both teams, but the answers in defence are the same.

Like the Kiwis with Walsh above, If the Kangaroos do a good job on the ball, in the wrestle and in setting their line, they will go a long way to keeping a lid on the New Zealand attack.

A lot seems to have happened off the field over the last couple of weeks. It’s another testament to how successful this tournament has been. I’ll use this final article of the season to offload a few thoughts here:

Quality Analysis: How good is it to have real analysis in the commentary box at the moment? Luke Keary has been great and strikes a good balance between highlighting key plays and being critical of mistakes. Shaun Johnson’s passion can’t be bought down. His post-match comments on the officiating have been clipped up for clicks, which he should have expected, but he’s able to be critical and fair if you’re prepared to sit through three minutes instead of 30 seconds.

The Home of Rugby League’ wasn’t interested in broadcasting the tournament, and it became Channel 7’s gain. Their work on shooting pre-game haka needs work, but they’ve otherwise put on a good show.

Flags, Or Something? It wouldn’t be a successful tournament without sections of the media trying to bring it down. I saw headlines about flags and anthems, but gave the articles the respect they deserved and didn’t bother to click. As is often the case with particular journalists in the space commiting L.A.M.E Violations¹

Pay Parity: It’s fair to question how Spencer Leniu has chosen to go about making his statement on the pay disparity between nations at the World Cup. However, I’m struggling to see an argument for the gap being so big. The game told on itself a little bit by announcing the location of the next tournament, too…

Capitalising On The Pacific Islands: “The IRL Board has decided that the next Rugby League World Cup for Men and Women in 2030 will be staged in the Pacific-USA. This is a strategy to maximise the interest of broadcasters, government partners and fans in the current World Cup, which has regularly broken records for crowds and the number of television viewers because of the outstanding skill, intensity and passion of the players and teams.

At the same time we want to take advantage of opportunities that are opening up in new frontiers where the Rugby League World Cup hasn’t previously been played.” - International Rugby League Chair Troy Grant

Those opportunities are built on the back of Samoa and Tonga becoming increasingly popular in the USA, and large pacific communities living in particular parts of it. The same Samoa and Tongan teams allocated $850 match payments…

The Magic Round style format has legs, though. It’s a big ask to have Kiwis and Aussies fly over to see any of the tournament, but if they can see every team play over a weekend, they’ll encourage more than standalone games scattered across the country.

Eligibility Extended: There seems to be a split on whether or not extending eligibility to play for nations to great grandparents is good or bad for the game.

Kaeo Weeks has been used as the poster-boy for the potential change after he missed out on selection for the Kiwis while also failing to qualify for the Cook Islands. From a purely rugby league standpoint, the tournament would have been better with his inclusion.

Having just visited the Cook Islands, I might be a little more biased here. Every fourth person had some for of rugby league gear on. Majority of it Warriors and Kuki’s, but all way to North Sydney Bears merch. They deserve as much quality footy as possible. The English will have an opposite view, I’m sure.