State of Origin: Making The Case For Stefano Utoikamanu

Stefano Utoikamanu is preparing for Game 2 of the 2025 State of Origin series as a replacement for New South Wales Blues prop Mitch Barnett.

His inclusion in the squad sparked a heated discussion in the rugby league world throughout the build-up to Game 1. It seems to have gone to another level since earning his spot in the 17 for this one.

Once regarded as one of the best young props in the game, the script has flipped recently.

“Would he have been picked had he not left the Wests Tigers?”

He was picked while at the Tigers, and Jarome Luai has since been selected to replace Mitchell Moses. That narrative isn’t worth covering. Others are, though.

While X/Twitter isn’t always the most reliable source, the comments under this post offer an insight into what I feel like is the general perception around Utoikamanu.

“Regressed.”

“His form is no better than it was at the Tigers.”

“He hasn’t improved, he’s just wearing the magic purple jersey now.”

Speaking with NEDs NRL Guru and erstwhile Rugby League Writer, Oscar Pannifex, he described Utoikamanu’s form as “underwhelming.”

I think he’s hit the nail on the head. Utoikamanu hasn’t been bad in any sense for me. He certainly hasn’t regressed. He’s not hit the heights a lot of people set for him, but were the expectations too high?

Did we get sucked into the assumed Tigers → Anywhere-but-especially-the-Storm improvement cycle?

A quick look through the numbers suggests Utoikamanu has performed better this year than in his last with the Tigers.

Obviously, numbers only tell part of the story, but there is nothing poor about these.

With 36 matches played out of a possible 36 since the start of last season, Utoikamanu is reliable at the very least. Availability is the best ability.

He’s playing fewer minutes than he did last season, but that’s on par with Melbourne’s minutes at the position. Josh King is the big-minute prop in Craig Bellamy’s rotation. Tui Kamikamica (39 mins), Christian Welch (42 mins) and Nelson Asofa-Solomona (37 mins) rotated through the Prop 2 spot in 2024 for 39 minutes per game.

Despite playing fewer minutes, Utoikamanu is matching his 106 running metres per game. Again, put him against the players he’s stepping in for - Kamikamica (86m), Welch (104m) & Asofa-Solomona (104m) - and he’s hitting the mark.

While averaging fewer tackle breaks, his 3.6 per game is behind only Payne Haas (5.8) and Asofa-Solomona (5) among props in the NRL.

His offloads are developing. He isn’t yet producing the numbers I anticipated before Round 1, but has only finished one of his last nine games without one.

We’ve seen Utoikamanu pick his spots to release the ball. He can produce a late offload to improve on Melbourne’s yardage, or he can move closer to the tap line to find the opposing half and generate momentum down the edges.

His offloads might not be prolific, but they’re effective when he does choose to throw them.

Tackle efficiency is a number I’ve covered before:

When judging props, his 93.5% from last season is a considerable concern. While 97.4% only covers those he is in a position to attempt and doesn’t measure the quality of those tackles, it suggests an improvement in contact year-on-year. You’re not holding a starting position in the middle for the Melbourne Storm if you’re a bad defender, either…

But it’s in the actions that the numbers don’t always capture that he has found success.

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