It’s not the first Preliminary Final many expected when the NRL Finals kicked off, but here we are. The Dolphins are into their first in club history while Sam Walker has been named to return and lead the Sydney Roosters to their first since winning it in 2019.

We’re starved of high-quality public numbers in the NRL space, so we are doing the best with what we’ve got here. Almost every major number - tackles, kicking metres, and even running metres - can tell a story that simply isn’t true. Still, there are a few leading up to this match that can start to paint a picture of what we’re likely to see on Friday night.

We’ve got two of the best attacking teams in the NRL going head-to-head in this one. The Dolphins finished 4th in scoring at 27.5 points per game with the Roosters close behind in 6th at 26 points per game.

They get up the field well to both be inside the top four in running metres, and use those metres to spend time in the opposition half. The Roosters average 66.6 tackles inside the opposition half in attack (3rd) to the Dolphins 64.3 (6th).

The two teams take different approaches to getting up the field. Kristian Woolf’s side use 82.7 one-pass hit-ups per game to generate yardage and win the territory battle while Trent Robinson uses a wider approach for only 71.4 one-pass hit-ups per game (16th)¹.

We see more passes from the Roosters out of yardage. They aren’t always traditional shifts like we’d see from the Newcastle Knights or Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, but short passes between forwards or with James Tedesco stepping in as a distributor around the ruck. - Roosters v Sharks Preview

While we see more passes up the field from the Roosters, both teams average the same number of general play passes per game - 108.

Isaiya Katoa getting his hands on the ball 59 times per game, almost exclusively in good ball and inside ten, will play a big part in that number, and captures how much more the Dolphins move the ball with the try line in sight.

Interestingly, though, tackles in the opposition half don’t translate into time spent inside the opposition 20-metre zone. The Roosters’ 30.6 tackles inside the opposition 20 is the second-most in the NRL, significantly higher than the Dolphins’ 27 (10th).

Outside of the Knights who have a freakish ability to score from any where on the field, most teams in the competition are fighting for inches. They’re looking to get closer to the opposition line with every set. Once they’re there, the scoring plan comes to life.

Per Stats Insider, the Dolphins have scored 39% of their tries through the left edge, 27% in the middle, and 34% down the right.

Isaiya Katoa’s work at first-receiver is crucial to how the Dolphins score 27% of their tries through the middle, but he also compress the line and creates opportunities on the edges. As expected, a lot Katoa’s work that doesn’t translate into a try off him directly ends up down Kodi Nikorima’s left edge where the veteran has contributed 35 try involvements in 21 games².

In contrast, only the South Sydney Rabbitohs have scored fewer tries through the middle than the Roosters. Only 20% of their tries have come in the centre-third this season with 38% down the left and 42% through the right.

With Sam Walker all over the field, numerous ball-players through the middle capable of shifting the ball, and Daly Cherry-Evans and James Tedesco floating down the right side, the tri-colours are most dangerous shifting the ball to the likes of Daniel Tupou and Mark Nawaqanitawase out wide. Their NRL-high 303 attacking kicks will have something to do with how prolific the Roosters are on the edges, too.

More important than where teams score, is where the concede tries.

The Dolphins have conceded 34% through their left edge, 27% in the middle and 39% down the right. The Roosters aren’t a lot different at 32% / 29% / 39%, however, there is more to that 29% in the middle than meets the eye.

Concerningly, only the Parramatta Eels, Wests Tigers and Brisbane Broncos have conceded more tries through the middle of the field. They aren’t three teams you want to be mentioned alongside when it comes to defence. Expect Katoa to be looking for cues in the middle, as he did back in Round 15.

Some of that will have been made slightly easier than it will be this week with Cody Ramsay at fullback setting the numbers. But it has been a theme throughout the season. Nathan Cleary and the Penrith Panthers generated similar looks in Week 1 of the finals.

The numbers suggest the Roosters will spend a lot of time in the Dolphins 20-metre zone. It’s there where they can generate consistent cues against a defensive system that does offer opportunities on the edges.

As a team that defends with two markers all the way up the field, the Dolphins value their middle defence. That extra marker adds strength to how they defend around the ruck, but creates a little bit of extra work to cover out wide.

This is further out and in a spot that would always see two markers, but it captures the look the Roosters will be seeking: A late third man, five defenders from the middle and a lead inside the three-man.

With Walker holding one side, the Roosters can stack with other with Tedesco and Cherry-Evans to ask dangerous questions. You can only keep a lid on those two for so long, particularly with how compressed the Dolphins can be in the middle.

Finally, it’s trick shot season, so here is one I’ll be keeping an eye out for on Friday night.

Again, it’s a different fullback and Tedesco might defend it differently, but he can only do so much with the late man back. Disguised as a typical diamond shape shift to the left, Nikorima sneaks through to regather the perfect Katoa kick.

The Dolphins will have a plan for when the game is on the line and they need points. Putting this on again, or finding a similar role for Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, is a good place to start.