Trent Robinson v Craig Fitzgibbon.

It’s a match made in elimination final heaven.

The two coaches know each other exceptionally well, and unlike other Master v Apprentice coaching head-to-heads that can often be played out between two teams adopting similar styles, Fitzgibbon has created something statistically different at the Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks.

They play with the flare of the Sydney Roosters at times, but not before they take a more hard-nosed approach in getting up the field.

While the Sharks are one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the competition, they don’t take a lot of risks or play a lot of footy to get into those attacking positions. They’re 4th in the NRL in one-pass hit-ups at 83.6 per game, and 16th in general play passes at 89.4 per game. Fitzgibbon wants his Sharks to go through the defence up the field rather than around them.

It’s proven to be successful. The Sharks have generated 30.2 tackles inside the opposition 20-metre line per game (3rd-most in the NRL). It’s not a perfect measure, as an inability to score from those positions can make a bad attacking team look good here, but for the Sharks, it feels like an accurate reflection of their ability to get into dangerous positions. They manage to stay there by leading the NRL (alongside the Roosters) in forced dropouts at 1.6 per game, too.

They’ve made significant improvements in being able to generate good looks close to the line. Addin Fonua-Blake is an underrated catalyst to their best actions while Braydon Trindall is playing out a career-best year as the lead half. Where they’ve fallen short against the best defensive teams in the competition in September, they look a lot more capable of breaking them down when at their best in 2026.

The Sharks are 5th in the NRL running for 1,500 metres per game while the Roosters are only slightly ahead at 1,504 metres per game. They do it differently, though.

We see more passes from the Roosters out of yardage. They aren’t always traditional shifts like we’d see from the Newcastle Knights¹ or Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, but short passes between forwards or with James Tedesco stepping in as a distributor around the ruck.

Where the Sharks rank towards the top in one pass hit-ups, the Roosters are 14th with only 71.7 per game. Like the Sharks, the Roosters get up the field and into the opposition 20-metre zone 30.8 times per game. Slightly further out, they’re first in attacking kicks at 11.7 per game.

Matty Johns, who is a great analyst despite his reputation as more of a larrikin, summed up the Roosters attack last week:

They attacked too conservatively, particularly when the Panthers were reduced to 12 men.

The Roosters need to open up their attack in this contest — engaging in a centrefield war again will disadvantage them.

I expect the Roosters to play a little bit of sideline-to-sideline football in the first 30 minutes to pry the Sharks’ middle defence open.

While I don’t quite subscribe to the idea that it will be sideline-to-sideline, I expect to see a more expansive brand design to fatigue what can be a slow Sharks middle after repeat efforts. Expect to see Tedesco in one of those short-passing positions throw a dummy and find space in behind the markers and A defender at some point in the match.

The numbers paint the picture of an even match on Saturday night. Despite different styles, their ability to get up the field and spend time attacking the opposition line are the same. It will come down to which team can make the most of that time attacking the line…

ICYMI: I looked into a few stats that don’t matter after Cowboys v Sharks last week.

Both teams play with a relatively even split in attack, so there are opportunities across the field to pick where the points will come from. Per Stats Insider, the Sharks have scored 34% of their points on the left, 28% in the middle, and 38% on the right. The Roosters are even tighter at 40%, 19% and 41%.

I’m expecting to see the Sharks play through their left edge more than the right. Their best football has come through Trindall all season, and one of their best avenues will come around Daly Cherry-Evans and the Roosters right edge.

There can be a disconnection there at times. Roosters wingers look to jam on both sides, but if the half and centre don’t stay up, triangles present and cues become clear.

Hugo Savala has been here before. He played in the halves in Week 1 of the finals last season, albeit alongside Sam Walker. He’s a strong defender in contact and has proven more than capable of making the right movements based on his time in the centres. The Sharks are better than most at capitalising on cues in the line, but I expect most to come in and around the veteran halfback.

For the Roosters, they lost a lot of their creativity and ad-lib football when Walker went down. Cherry-Evans will ensure the system plays out, but it won’t come with the flare Walker can provide. However, if getting to points for a shot doesn’t work, they have two cheat-codes on the wing to throw punches on the last play.

Daniel Tupou is one of the most underrated players in NRL history for me². He’s reliable, consistant, and so often in position to make the big play when it’s needed. Mark Nawaqanitawase, though, has found success against Ronaldo Mulitalo over the last 12 months, going back to the 2025 Week 1 Final.

Mulitalo is fantastic in the air in attack, but as he moves back to give himself a running start defensively, he can make the jump a little bit easier for his opposite if slightly mistimed. There isn’t a winger in the competition that will make more of a mistimed jump from the defence than Nawaqanitawase.

We’re at the point of the NRL season when teams aren’t saving up their trick shots. There will be something thrown in there that we’ve not seen before. This Roosters scrum is something to keep an eye out for with Nawaqanitawase swinging around from a 5/1 split.

The Sharks will likely have something cooked up around Mulitalo coming in off his wing, whether it be as a ball-carrier or pushing through the middle on a kick.

It’s do or die for two of the best teams, led by two of the smartest coaches in the competition on Saturday night.

Strap yourselves in.