The Penrith Panthers have been here and done this all before. No matter the turnover of the squad year-to-year, there is a confidence in their ability to go deep into September. The Newcastle Knights, on the other hand, weren’t meant to be here. Finishing 2025 holding the wooden spoon, simply making the NRL Finals would be considered a significant achievement. They’re now 80 minutes away from the biggest game of the year.

The Penrith Panthers have been the best rugby league team I have ever seen over the last six years. We know exactly what to expect every game, yet, nobody seems to be able to stop it consistently. The Newcastle Knights are 12 months removed a wooden spoon. They’ve transformed under Justin Holbrook and, as the South Sydney Rabbitohs and Warriors have found out, aren’t done transforming just yet.

Unlike the first Preliminary Final of the 2026 series, the numbers don’t align particularly well for this contest. The two teams take dramatically different approaches to almost everything on both sides of the ball.

From the most simple numerical angle, the Panthers lead the NRL in metres gained at 1,568 metres per game. The Knights are way down the list at 12th, over a length of the field behind at 1,435 metres per game. As expected, attacking opportunities from inside 20 are limited for the Knights.

Newcastle generate the fewest tackles inside the opposition half at 50.4 per game to Penrith’s 65.3. Further up into the red zone, Newcastle stay at the bottom of the list at only 19.7 to Penrith’s 28.5 per game. Thankfully, for the Knights, they’re the best team in the competition at scoring from inside their own half.

The St George-Illawarra Dragons scrambled well to save a try on the long shift above, but the Knights know where the ball is going on the next play. It captures how potent they are in attack without the field position numbers other top attacking teams play with.

One shift for another from sideline to sideline follows the long linebreak. Everyone is in position, knows their role, and can execute at speed under pressure.

For better or worse, they constantly move the ball. Despite the lack of opportunity near the line when most teams tick over their passing count numbers, the Knights are second in the NRL for general play passes at 118.2 per game. One-pass runs where the Panthers are 2nd at 89.3 per game, the Knights are again last with only 66.8.

There isn’t a shift the Knights don’t like the look of anywhere up the field.

They’ll play to both sides of the field, and seem happy to land near the sideline if it means they’re firing a shot. - Rabbitohs v Knights Preview

Regardless of what the numbers say, what history suggests correlates with winning, and the preseason expectations for either team, the Knights have taught us anything is possible in September.

For a team that has consistently exceeded expectations and bucked trends, it makes sense for the Knights to be perfectly balanced in how they scored their points.