NRL Grand Final Team List Analysis

Key Points

• Back 5 Battle: Walsh is the most dangerous player on the field and a match-winner on his own. However, the advantage lies with the Storm here.

• Hall of Fame Halves: Their strengths are clear and won’t be a surprise to any player running onto the field on Sunday night.

• The Engine Room: Haas is the best prop in the game and, somehow, still getting better. Utoikamanu, meanwhile, isn’t quite as far behind as a lot of people would suggest…

• 🔒Impact off the bench: Hopefully, the game played out injury-free and the rotations stay as planned. If that’s the case, I like what Brisbane is starting with on the pine.

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Back 5 Battle

The battle of the back fives is going to be a beauty if the game is allowed to open up following the expected arm wrestle to start.

In Will Warbrick, Jack Howarth, Nick Meaney and Xavier Coates, the Storm have an excellent yardage back five. They’ll take the tough carries and allow Melbourne to go set-for-set with Brisbane should the game play out that way. Warbrick and Coates, in particular, are key to how the Storm begin and end their sets with an aerial ability no other team in the competition can match.

The Broncos struggled to contain the Storm wingers in their last match. The two teams last went head-to-head at the height of the predictably-temporary crackdown on players being tackled in the air, but the Storm still found ways to score.

The Broncos, on the other hand, will look to use their speed to counter the Storm’s strength.

Where the Melbourne back-five might be able to force their way out of trouble through the middle, Brisbane are happy to shift the ball to their speed on the edges.

Josiah Karapani, Kotoni Staggs, Gehamat Shibasaki and Deine Mariner are all dangerous tackle breakers in space. It’s an overused trope in rugby league these days, but simple, early ball to the edges in yardage is an avenue for success against Melbourne’s sliding defence. Provided the Broncos take the space before cutting back inside to avoid the sideline, they’ll be able to move the ball in yardage to get up the field.

The back five battle hinges on the performance of Ryan Papenhuyzen and Reece Walsh, though.

Again, it’s in different areas of the field.

Papenhuyzen is constantly sniffing around the ruck and pushing up in support through the middle. His presence puts defenders on their heels, and once the Storm are into the backfield, no fullback pops up more consistently than Papenhuyzen.

It’s in contrast to Walsh, who does his best work wider. There is more on Brisbane’s leads inside Cameron Munster to come, but when the Broncos can put Walsh on the outside of the three-man, it’s lights out. Sure, he’s among the NRL’s most error-prone players, but it’s the price you pay for a fullback who has accounted for 42 try involvements this season.

It’s a difficult battle to assess. Walsh is the most dangerous player on the field and a match-winner on his own. However, the advantage lies with the Storm here, given what they can do if the game turns into an 80-minute arm wrestle.

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Hall of Fame Halves

All of Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes, Ben Hunt and Adam Reynolds will have a case for the Hall of Fame when their NRL careers are said and done.

Their strengths are clear and won’t be a surprise to any player running onto the field on Sunday night.

Munster can beat you from anywhere. No play is dead while he’s in possession and no game is over while he’s on the field. Meanwhile, Hughes is still a dangerous runner of the ball despite nursing a serious arm injury. If the Storm stack one side with Munster and Papenhuyzen, the opposing fullback still needs to consider his numbers with Hughes down a short side.

For the Broncos, Hunt has been there and done it all. He’s one of the most versatile players in the competition with his ability as a ball player (30 try assists last season), a ball runner (86 career tries), and an option for the coach to move to the middle (50 starts at hooker). While Reynolds has never accounted for more than 20 try assists in an NRL season, his influence on the attack is undeniable to the switched-on footy fan. Reynolds often throws the pass before the pass after compressing the middle and engaging the defence. Walsh’s threat out wide isn’t as dangerous without what Reynolds first does through the middle.

There aren’t a lot of holes in either halves pairing.

Munster is a great tackler, but he can create a few triangles in the defensive line alongside his hard-working backrowers. The Broncos are prepared better than most teams to make the most of it, as they were when the two teams last met with regular leads inside Munster.

Reynolds isn’t making the best contact on the edges in defence when the attack picks him out in the line. Hunt is often a target for the opposition to generate momentum, too. With 49 one-on-one tackles this season, he’s among the leaders in the NRL among halves, which suggests it’s a targeted ploy to force him into defending before trying to strike on the following play.

A healthy Hughes puts the advantage with the Storm, but given the concerns around his injury despite playing last week, I can’t split the two halves pairings.

The Engine Room

Payne Haas and Stefano Utoikamanu are already talking a big game ahead of the NRL Grand Final, and so they should.

Haas is the best prop in the world and, somehow, still getting better. He’s a destructive ball carrier capable of scoring tries no other prop can, and has the motor that defies physiology.

Utoikamanu, meanwhile, isn’t quite as far behind as a lot of people would suggest…

He’s been one of Melbourne’s best middles all year, and while his counting stats look similar to those from his last season at the Wests Tigers, the eye test has told a different story.

He averaged 106 metres and 3.6 tackle breaks per game after Round 13 when mentioning his name for State of Origin drew some interesting feedback. Heading into the NRL Grand Final, he’s averaging 110 running metres, four tackle breaks and 1.3 offloads per game. It’s taken a little while for the general public to come around, but Utoikamanu is a key element to the Storm all the way up the field.

Harry Grant, in particular, will be looking to play on the back of those strong Utoikamanu carries. He laid on a beauty to secure the Preliminary Final win last week.

It’s not the cue of there being no markers that makes the action most impressive - any hooker in the NRL will identify that one. It’s the vision to see note the final tackle and that Sione Katoa is back for the kick.

Even then, it’s the burst straight forward that holds the space on the edges. Had he simply jumped out to the edge, Grant would have given the Sharks time to slide and wait for Katoa to join the line. By pushing forward through the middle, he shrunk the line further for Howarth and Coates to finish it in the corner.

The Broncos don’t have that sort of threat from dummy half, but Patrick Carrigan offers something different one pass wider. He’s an elite ball carrier first and foremost which is a key aspect of an great ball-playing middle. That dual threat allows the Broncos to move the ball wide early and often to capitalise on any cues the Storm line presents.

Eli Katoa v Brendan Piakura presents as an interesting battle. Katoa might be the best backrower in the competition right now. He works hard in defence, carries the ball well and is a threat in the air alongside Warbrick. Piakura is no slouch with the ball, though. He can cause Katoa a few problems and make it difficult to apply the sort of pressure he typically does on the opposing half.

Rugby league is a simple game and it so often comes down to the middle. Again, it’s Brisbane who has the best player in the unit, but the Melbourne collective packs more punch.

Impact of the Bench

While the Storm have held the advantage up the field for the most part so far here, the bench favours the Broncos.

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